If you have ever had a conversation with someone who really likes to play the lottery, spends $50 or $100 a week, you may be surprised by the level of clear-eyed knowledge they have about the odds of winning. Yes, they have all sorts of quote-unquote systems that are not borne out by statistical reasoning about lucky numbers and stores and times to buy tickets and what types of tickets to buy, but they know their odds are long and that they probably won’t win.
A lot of people also think that winning the lottery is a good way to get out of paying taxes or getting into debt (lottery prize money typically is paid in equal annual installments over 30 years, with inflation and taxes dramatically eroding the current value); this argument is especially strong when state governments are struggling. But studies have shown that the popularity of lotteries is not related to states’ actual fiscal condition; they enjoy broad public support even when government services are well funded.
Lotteries are popular, too, because many people like to think that they provide a social service by generating tax revenues for government programs. But that argument is misleading, too. The vast majority of lottery players and revenue come from middle-income neighborhoods, not low- or high-income areas. And the fact is that lottery revenue is not used primarily to fund state social safety nets; it has more often been earmarked for education.